UConn and South Carolina Lead 2025 Women's March Madness Odds as Defending Champs and Runners-Up Clash Again

When the University of Connecticut Huskies and University of South Carolina Gamecocks tip off their 2024-25 seasons, the entire college basketball world isn’t just watching—it’s betting. As of November 2024, UConn sits as the early favorite to repeat as national champions, with odds hovering between +140 and +155 across major sportsbooks. South Carolina, last year’s runner-up, isn’t far behind at +230 to +300. The twist? Neither team has lost a game yet. Both are 4-0. Both are ranked in the top two. And for the first time since 2021, the path to the title might just run through a rematch of last year’s final.

The Huskies Without Bueckers: Can Sarah Strong Carry the Load?

Paige Bueckers, the transcendent guard who led UConn to the 2024 title with 17 points in the final, is now in the WNBA. Her departure left a void. But Sarah Strong, a sophomore who dropped 24 points and 15 rebounds in that championship game, hasn’t just stepped up—she’s exploded. Through five games this season, she’s averaging 20.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. That’s All-American numbers. And she’s not alone. Azzi Fudd, the five-year senior and former phenom returning from injury, adds elite shooting and playmaking. But here’s the thing: depth is thinner than last year. ESPN’s bracket projections show UConn at 31-3 overall and 18-0 in the Big East, but the bench hasn’t consistently matched the starting five’s intensity. "UConn, even without Paige Bueckers, is in a good spot to repeat," says CBS Sports analyst Maloney. "Strong is the kind of player who can carry a team through a tough tournament."

South Carolina’s Quiet Dominance—And a Major Setback

If UConn is flashy, South Carolina is surgical. Head coach Dawn Staley, already a Hall of Famer, is chasing her fourth national title. Her system is built on defense, discipline, and veteran leadership. Raven Johnson, the engine of the Gamecocks’ offense, is back. So is the culture. But on November 18, 2024, everything shifted. Starting forward Chloe Kitts, a 6-foot-2 senior and key interior presence, tore her ACL. The announcement came just hours after South Carolina’s fourth win. Suddenly, their depth chart looks exposed. Still, Staley’s program has weathered injuries before. The Gamecocks are 30-5 projected for the season, 12-4 in the SEC, and their odds remain tighter than UConn’s at many books—FanDuel even has them at +230, implying a 30% chance to win it all. "They don’t need one superstar," says Sportsbook Review. "They have a roster that plays like a machine. Even without Kitts, they’re dangerous."

The Other Final Four Contenders: UCLA, Texas, and the Rising Threats

The 2024 Final Four featured four teams. Two are now the favorites. The other two? Still in the hunt. UCLA Bruins, who lost 85-51 to UConn in last year’s semifinal, are 5-0 and ranked No. 3. They’re +425 to +440 to win it all. Texas Longhorns, who fell 74-57 to South Carolina, are 4-0 and ranked No. 4. Their odds range from +1000 to +1400, but CBS analyst Gibbs is betting big: "Madison Booker and Rori Harmon are the most lethal backcourt duo in the country. Texas wins the SEC and the national title." Booker leads the Longhorns with 22.3 points per game. Harmon, the ACC Player of the Year last season, controls tempo like a maestro.

Don’t sleep on NC State Wolfpack. At 26-6 overall and 16-2 in the ACC, they’re the best team in a conference that’s suddenly deep. TCU and Notre Dame are also lurking. And then there’s USC Trojans. They lost JuJu Watkins to an ACL tear and Kiki Iriafen to graduation—but freshman Jazzy Davidson is already drawing comparisons to past Trojan stars. She’s averaging 14.2 points and 7.1 rebounds in her first five games.

What’s the Real Timeline? And Why It Matters

There’s confusion in the reports. Fox News and others reference the "2025-26 Women’s March Madness," but that’s a misstep. The tournament for the 2024-25 season will happen in March 2025. The First Four games are expected on March 18, 2025, with the Final Four in Tampa on April 5 and 7. The 2025-26 season won’t begin until October 2025. This isn’t just semantics—it’s critical for bettors and fans tracking player development. A sophomore like Strong will be a junior by March 2025. Fudd will be a senior. The window for UConn’s current core is narrow.

Why This Season Could Be Historic

Only once in the last 25 years has a women’s team repeated as champion: UConn in 2014 and 2015. No team has won back-to-back titles since 2002. The pressure on UConn is immense. The narrative is irresistible: Can they do it without their superstar? Can South Carolina finally dethrone them? And if Texas wins, does it signal a shift from the traditional powers to the SEC’s rising tide?

The answer might come down to one thing: resilience. UConn has talent, but less depth. South Carolina has structure, but lost a key piece. UCLA and Texas have stars, but haven’t proven they can win in April. The tournament doesn’t start until March. But right now, the chessboard is set. And the two biggest pieces are already on the board.