On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 1:00 PM ET, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in a game that could redefine both teams’ playoff hopes. Despite being tied at 5-5, the Chiefs are heavy favorites—-189 on the moneyline, -3.5 on the spread—despite a season full of inconsistency. The twist? The Colts, at 8-2, bring the NFL’s most dangerous rushing attack, led by Jonathan Taylor, whose +0.20 EPA per rush isn’t just impressive—it’s historic. And if there’s one thing that keeps Patrick Mahomes up at night, it’s facing Lou Anarumo, the Colts’ defensive coordinator who’s spent years making Mahomes look like a rookie.
Why This Game Feels Like a Trap
Here’s the thing: Mahomes is 0-4 against the spread when facing teams coming off a bye week. The Colts just had theirs. Anarumo, who ran Cincinnati’s defense from 2019 to 2022, has consistently disrupted Mahomes’ rhythm—forcing errant throws, collapsing pockets early, and forcing Kansas City into third-and-long situations. That’s not coincidence. It’s design. And it’s working. In their last meeting, Mahomes threw two picks and averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt against Anarumo’s zone-heavy scheme. This time, the stakes are higher. The Chiefs need a win to stay in the AFC playoff hunt. The Colts? They’re already locked in as a top-three seed. That means Indy can play loose. And they will.
The Jonathan Taylor Factor
Nothing about the Colts’ running game is normal. They don’t rely on power. They don’t use a lot of fullbacks. Instead, they use misdirection, delayed handoffs, and Taylor’s uncanny ability to find a half-inch of space and turn it into 12 yards. According to Sports Illustrated, Taylor averages 5.8 yards per carry and accounts for nearly 40% of Indianapolis’ total offense. He’s not just a runner—he’s a playmaker. When he gets 20+ carries, the Colts are 7-1 this season. And here’s the kicker: the Chiefs’ defense allows the highest catch rate to slot receivers in the league. But they’re also vulnerable to outside runs, especially when linebackers over-pursue. If Taylor gets 25 touches—and he will—the Chiefs’ secondary will be chasing ghosts while he eats up clock.
Arrowhead’s Edge—and Its Echoes
Arrowhead Stadium isn’t just a venue. It’s a weapon. With a recorded noise level of 142.2 decibels—the loudest in NFL history—it’s designed to break rhythm. The Chiefs are 4-0 at home this season. But here’s the catch: they lost their last road game to Denver, 22-19, gaining just 311 total yards. Mahomes threw for 249, but rushed for only 62. That’s not a fluke—it’s a pattern. When the run game stalls, so does Kansas City’s offense. And with Christian Jones-Wallace (who allows the most targets per route run among KC’s top corners) likely shadowing Colts slot receiver Alec Pierce, the Chiefs’ passing game might be forced into predictable patterns. That’s exactly what Anarumo wants.
Betting Trends and Public Sentiment
Oddsmakers are split. Dimer’s Bet Hub has the Chiefs favored by -4.5 with a 50-point over/under. SportsGambler has -3.5. The public is evenly split—50% on each team. But here’s what the money says: 65% win probability for Kansas City. That’s not just hype. It’s data. The Chiefs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five. And while the Colts are 1-3 ATS on the road, they’ve covered in two of their last three games against teams with winning records. This isn’t a coin flip. It’s a chess match. And Taylor is the queen.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Win
If the Chiefs win, they snap a two-game losing streak and keep their playoff hopes alive. Mahomes regains his swagger. But if the Colts win? That’s when the MVP conversation explodes. Taylor has 1,427 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s on pace for 1,800 yards. And he’s doing it without a top-tier offensive line. He’s doing it while the Colts’ passing game ranks 24th in the league. No running back has won MVP since 2005. But if Taylor leads his team to a statement win over Mahomes in Arrowhead? That changes everything. The award isn’t just about stats. It’s about narrative. And this game? It’s the narrative.
What Happens Next
After this game, the Chiefs face the Chargers and Raiders—two teams with porous defenses. A win here sets them up for a late-season surge. The Colts, meanwhile, host the Bills next week. If they beat Kansas City, they’re not just a playoff team—they’re a Super Bowl contender. And if Anarumo silences Mahomes again? The entire AFC landscape shifts. The Chiefs might be favored. But in this matchup, the underdog holds the keys.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Jonathan Taylor’s performance impact the MVP race?
Taylor’s +0.20 EPA per rush is the highest in NFL history for a running back with 200+ carries. He’s on pace for 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns, all while the Colts’ passing attack ranks 24th. If he leads Indianapolis to a win over the Chiefs—a team with playoff aspirations—he could break the 20-year MVP drought for running backs. No RB has won since Shaun Alexander in 2005, but this game could be the turning point.
Why is Lou Anarumo such a problem for Patrick Mahomes?
Anarumo’s schemes rely on delayed blitzes, disguised coverages, and forcing Mahomes to read multiple levels. In their four previous meetings, Mahomes averaged just 214 passing yards and threw 5 interceptions. Anarumo’s Bengals defense held Mahomes to 148 yards in 2021 and forced two game-sealing turnovers. His approach isn’t about stopping him—it’s about making him second-guess every throw.
What’s the significance of the Chiefs’ home record this season?
The Chiefs are 4-0 at Arrowhead, averaging 31.5 points per game at home. The stadium’s 142.2-decibel noise level disrupts audibles and forces false starts. But their last two home wins came against the Jets and Broncos—teams with bottom-five defenses. This will be their toughest home test yet. If they can’t control the line of scrimmage against Taylor, the crowd’s energy could turn from fuel to frustration.
How do the Colts’ recent losses affect their chances?
The Colts lost to the Rams and Steelers by double digits, and barely edged the Broncos in overtime. But those losses came on the road against elite defenses. Their wins over the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans were all by 14+ points. The difference? They controlled the clock. Against the Chiefs, if Taylor gets 25+ touches and the offense stays on the field, they can neutralize Mahomes’ explosiveness—even if the scoreboard looks close.
Why is the over/under set at 50 points?
The Chiefs have gone OVER in 3 of their last 5 games, and the Colts have gone OVER in 4 of their last 6. Kansas City’s offense is volatile but explosive; Indianapolis’ defense is strong but slow to adjust to quick passes. With Mahomes capable of a 3-touchdown game and Taylor capable of 150+ yards, a 27-23 or 31-24 scoreline isn’t just possible—it’s likely. The line is set to attract bets on both sides, but the trends favor the OVER.
What does this game mean for the AFC playoff picture?
A Colts win would give them a 9-2 record and likely lock up the AFC North’s No. 2 seed. A Chiefs win keeps them alive in the wild-card race but forces them to win their final four games. With the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals all in the mix, this game could determine who gets home-field advantage in January. The winner doesn’t just win a game—they gain momentum heading into the stretch run.
